What the Dauphiné really told us
What does this Dauphiné mean for Pogačar, Vingegaard and Evenepoel? Here’s my analysis of how each team performed in the final test before the Tour de France.
Tadej Pogačar claimed victory in the latest edition of the Critérium du Dauphiné. Today, we’ve learned that ASO will rename the race Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, reflecting its new sponsorship from the regional governments.
Let’s begin with what this means for the winner. Absent from racing since his demolition job in Liège, Pogačar opened the Dauphiné with a brilliant stage win. But that performance was followed by a disappointing time trial, the race’s first real test, where he looked uncomfortable, struggled to manage his effort and visibly suffered in the heat. He later admitted they still have things to work on related to ITTs.
The Alpine triple-header that closed the race was devastating. He turned the Côte de Domancy, a climb that brought good memories for Jonas Vingegaard, into child’s play and opened Tour-level gaps on a stage that featured just 2.400m of elevation.
On the queen stage with the Madeleine, Croix de Fer and Velmeinier combo, the gap between Pogačar and Vingegaard was much narrower, just 14 seconds. That said, Pogačar clearly eased up in the final km, with gaps earlier hovering around 30”. Evenepoel, for context, lost 2’ 39”. Pure climbers like Mas and Rodríguez dropped nearly 4 minutes. Jorgenson? Five and a half. Another league.
The Dauphiné isn't always a predictor for the Tour de France winner. In fact, only six of the last 21 Dauphiné champions went on to win the Tour in the same summer (Wiggins in 2012, Froome in 2013, 2015 and 2016, Thomas in 2018, and Vingegaard in 2023). Still, the gap Pogačar showed over Vingegaard, and both over everyone else, seems to reinforce the narrative of a two-man showdown at the Tour. Even Evenepoel seems further behind than in 2024.
Pogačar's attitude, however, felt different this time. First, his leadership style.
His explosive effort on Domancy felt like a psychological blow aimed at Vingegaard. But the next day, on a proper climbing stage with altitude, tension and chained ascents, he rode up a bottle for his only domestique, Pavel Sivakov, a gesture almost unseen of in pro cycling, before attacking with 12km to go.
On Friday he showed unmatched anaerobic power. (By the way, the 2027 Worlds will be held here, with 20 laps of that climb…). On Saturday, he beat Vingegaard on his own terrain, although the Dane looked stronger than the day before.
Then on Sunday, despite being close to claiming his 100th career victory, Pogačar seemed uninterested in the stage win despite going clear with Vingegaard and having Martínez just half a minute away. Is the Dauphiné not a prestigious enough place to take his century win? Was he trying to show some humility after crushing everyone in the previous stages, as he did in the final weeks of both the Giro and Tour in 2024?
Pogačar always races to win. Always. That’s what defines him, and what earns him both praise and criticism… and what I like the most about him. But not this time. He seemed to deliberately withdraw from the stage win battle and looked over at Vingegaard in the sprint for second place. Another chapter in their ongoing psychological chess match.
There’s another telling detail. He bitterly complained that Visma tried to put him under pressure on the descent of the Croix de Fer, exploiting their numerical advantage. He blamed it on “modern cycling”. Honestly, I expected Pogačar to have a better grasp of the sport’s history. That kind of complaint feels misplaced and should only encourage rivals to keep testing the world’s most dominant rider when downhills come.
As for Vingegaard, he started the race in great shape: attacking, explosive, then strong in the time trial. But he faded a little bit in the final stages, likely due to race rust after three months without competition since his Paris-Nice crash.
Overall, the signs are promising. I’m confident he’ll improve heading into the Tour. Despite Pogačar being the clear favourite, I don’t think the gap will be as big as it seems now. Still, there’s a risk in how Vingegaard prepares their seasons. He puts everything on the Tour, year after year. That makes it even more dangerous, as a single crash or off day can ruin it all. This summer is pivotal for him: not just for the Tour itself, but for what it might mean in terms of how he approaches future seasons and race schedule.
Remco Evenepoel, drawing a parallel with the 2024 Dauphiné, collapsed in the mountains after a spectacular ITT. He’ll need to improve if he wants to seriously contend for the Tour podium.
Lipowitz, on the other hand, just like Vingegaard did in 2022 Dauphiné’s against/alongside Roglič, used this mini-Tour to confirm his level, show his potential and stake a claim to lead his team. Of course, the context and level of the two riders aren’t exactly comparable, but there’s a clear parallel: the German deserves a shot at the Tour.
After stage one of the Dauphiné, I posed a question about each team. A week later, some have been answered. Others remain open. And in a few cases… I just have even more questions. Let’s revisit what I asked of each team:
Last week’s question
Today’s answer
Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe: Is Lipowitz a legitimate co-leader for the Tour?
Red Bull have a team full of strong riders and their investment over the past 18 months has been immense, but Roglič remains the team’s defining figure. Hindley, Martínez, Vlasov, Pellizzari, Fisher-Black… too many contenders, though few seem on Florian Lipowitz’s level when it comes to high mountain.
He certainly is. If the Dauphiné was a trial for him, then his mountain form, ambition and podium finish should earn him freedom at the Tour de France, just as the team did with Hindley two years ago. That would be good for him, for the team, for the spectacle... and for Roglič.
Team Visma | Lease a Bike: What is Matteo Jorgenson's role?
It's a question we already asked back in March, during Paris-Nice, but Vingegaard’s crash left us without an answer. Simon Yates’ Giro victory only adds to the uncertainty. A second leader, at least for week-long stage races, or a top domestique?
His time trial level, ahead of Pogačar, suggested a co-leadership, but the reality is that the American faded and the most active rider from Visma, apart from JV, ended up being Kuss.
UAE Team Emirates - XRG: Can anyone beat Pogačar in a one-week stage race?
He's the best on almost every surface and in almost every kind of race, but in one-week stage races his superiority has been overwhelming over the last three years, even against Vingegaard. Tirreno, Paris-Nice, Volta a Catalunya. Dauphiné could become the fourth out of the seven top one-week races.
No. Next question.
INEOS Grenadiers: Can Rodríguez get close to the best again?
He's the biggest what-if in world cycling. A great rider who in 2023 looked close to taking a spot on the Tour podium, at the ideal age... but crashes and poor form have pushed him into the background. He's still young, still a great rider, and still INEOS's only real hope in Grand Tours.
Rodríguez’s performance left me quite cold. The level of Pogačar and Vingegaard was stratospheric, but he was also far off the riders he really needs to compete with if he dreams of a podium, or something close, in Paris. He must improve, and he doesn’t have much time left before 5 July.
Soudal Quick-Step: Is there anyone around Evenepoel?
Landa's crash at the Giro was a blow for Soudal. Yes, the last Tours have put everyone in their place when facing the best, but without Landa, Remco loses a top-level climber with enough experience to support him in a challenge as big as this. He needs more from their domestiques.
After the final stage, Evenepoel lamented the loneliness with which he had to race in the Dauphiné and said they would miss Landa greatly in Le Tour. Understandable. He needs to improve, but so does his team. Only Paret-Peintre was able to lend him a hand on the last stage.
Bahrain - Victorious: Martínez or Buitrago?
The team seems to have chosen Lenny Martínez to lead their GC ambitions at the Tour de France, but Santiago Buitrago showed today that he doesn't entirely agree with that idea. Fighting rivals is one thing, but fighting teammates is even funnier.
Both. And any of them. Competing for a general classification where the top two places are already decided, barring crashes or misfortunes, is reckless when there are other more established contenders. Martínez and Buitrago have the ability, as they showed this week, to win stages and fight for more than just a top 10 at the Tour.
Lidl - Trek: Can anyone beat Jonathan Milan?
With Merlier and Philipsen missing from the Dauphiné, Milan looked like the only favourite for the sprints. None of the other sprinters seemed able to challenge him, although no one expected Pogačar, Evenepoel or Vingegaard to get involved today. Still, he should dominate.
It's not about who, but what. The toughness, both in the first stage and in the fifth, won by Stewart, left Milan with just one victory in this Dauphiné, where Philipsen, Merlier and Girmay were absent. Those aiming to beat him at the Tour should take note. Flat stages should be contested too, and if the pace is very high with fights both up front and behind, it’s harder for the favourite to win. Pure cycling.
Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale Team: Seixas, stage hunter or GC?
French cycling is in a hurry, it's hungry, and it has plenty of skeletons in the closet. How Decathlon manage Seixas will be key to the development of one of the biggest teenage talents in modern cycling history. At the Dauphiné, stage hunter or something more?
He competed for the GC, although on Saturday he put his team to work with ambition. He’s good. Very good. Incredibly good.
XDS Astana Team: Will Sergio Higuita return?
Not even in a year where the whole team is flying, almost regardless of the race, have we seen the best version of Higuita. Since Lombardia 2022, he's been a faded rider with only occasional glimpses. We shall see.
Not for the moment. He was in a breakaway and fought for the polka-dot jersey. Small progress, but insufficient.
EF Education - EasyPost: Which youngster will pass the test?
Archie Ryan, Alastair Mackellar, Lukas Nerurkar and Alex Baudin. All very young, all hungry and talented, and all waiting to make their Tour de France debut. Archie Ryan, with his performance on the two climbs today, makes a strong case.
Baudin’s performance in Domancy, until he was overtaken by a Slovenian train, was fantastic. I look forward to seeing him make his Tour debut.
Movistar Team: Is Romeo ready?
Iván Romeo was one of the big names at the start of the season. His performances at the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana and UAE Tour were inspiring and showed the great talent of the u23 ITT world champion. His case reminds me of Oier Lazkano, who earned his freedom to attack at the 2024 Tour within Movistar thanks to a fantastic Dauphiné. Will it be Romeo's case too?
Iván Romeo is simply one of the most special talents in Spanish cycling. We produce so few riders like him and it’s wonderful when one like that comes along. He’s strong on every terrain and, on top of that, really clever. Grande.
Alpecin - Deceuninck: How is Mathieu?
We can conclude he's in good shape after what we saw today, but I'm very curious to see him over the course of the whole week. Without Philipsen or Groves, he's carrying the whole team at this Dauphiné.
Quite well, actually. He’s been one of the race protagonists. He contested the win with the favourites on the first day, also in the sprints, rode one of the best time trials of his life, and ended up fighting in the mountains to defend the green points jersey. Hopefully, we’ll see this version at the Tour.
Uno-X Mobility: What's going on with Wærenskjold?
After winning Omloop, the Norwegian disappeared and has barely performed since. With the Tour de France just around the corner, today we saw him cramping on a stage that should have suited him under normal conditions.
In Macon, we finally saw signs of life from Wærenskjold. A pure power sprint on a tough day, finishing third. That must be the formula to follow at the Tour.
Groupama - FDJ: Stages, GC or what?
Groupama are anxious at the Tour de France, and their approach to this year’s edition doesn't inspire much optimism. Gaudu's Giro was disastrous and it's unclear what their plan is at the Dauphiné. Martin, Cavagna, Penhoët... good names, but maybe not enough. They need a proper plan.
Cavagna rode a solid time trial (7th), Martin a decent GC (10th), Penhoët a strong sprint in Macon, Afonso was really combative and Rolland got into the right breakaway. Good, but not close to the podium nor stage wins.
Israel - Premier Tech: Is it finally Jake Stewart's time?
When he burst onto the scene with second place at Omloop in 2021, many expectations were placed on Stewart that he never fulfilled at Groupama. Nor at Israel in 2024. This year, he is finally showing consistency and bringing his speed to the fore. At this level, he's a contender for a stage win here, or even at the Tour, if he can be smart in breakaways or survive the selective stages.
I’m terrible at making predictions, but I had a good one here, eh.
Team Picnic PostNL: Can you do it, Romain?
Romain Bardet ends a fantastic professional career this week. He leaves a team on the brink and desperate to score wins and UCI points. Bardet will try to give them one last gift before retiring from professional cycling. It won't be easy, surrounded by cannibals.
He couldn’t make it, though he gave us some emotional scenes. Great career, Romain.
Team Jayco AlUla: The Dunbar from La Vuelta or from the start of the season?
Eddie Dunbar's stage-hunter version at La Vuelta 2024 was exciting and far better than the GC version we saw at the Giro d’Italia. But it's not just about picking one role or the other – he needs to show a level he's currently far from.
A bit of both. He was in the right breakaway, put in a very strong time trial, and kept close to the GC contenders in Combloux... but completely ran out of steam in the last two stages.
Cofidis: Where will they find the points?
Buchman, Dylan Teuns and Benjamin Thomas seem like solid options to fight for breakaways, stages, or even a decent GC result with the German. In theory it's simple, but managing the pressure and desperate situations like Cofidis's, especially in such a high-level race, is the real challenge.
Buchmann put in a respectable 11th in the GC, suggesting he could replicate that at the Tour de France. At this stage of his career and considering the team’s situation, it’s not bad at all.
Intermarché - Wanty: Is there life without Bini?
Girmay has long been the face and cornerstone of Intermarché, but neither wins nor headlines (nor UCI points) come when he's not around. The team's Giro was very poor, even worse than the invited teams. They need to get moving, because the threat of losing their WorldTour licence is real.
Louis Barré was third in the breakaway at Charantonnay and managed to hang on to the GC until the weekend, though that proved too much in the end. It never fails to make me laugh seeing Meintjes cling to the back of the peloton as nearly all his rivals drop off one by one. Never change, Louis.
Arkéa - B&B Hotels: Who wants a contract?
With staying in the WorldTour a fantasy and their continued existence in pro cycling hanging by a thread, Arkéa's races – with the exception of Vauquelin and Rodríguez – feel like a casting call to attract attention and a new deal in professional cycling. Today, Pierre Thierry.
Venturini performed well in several finishes, but there’s little else to say about the rest of the team in the Dauphiné.
Tudor Pro Cycling Team: Where are they without the stars?
The signings of Hirschi and Alaphilippe gave Cancellara's project a new dimension and secured their Tour invite, but none of them are here, nor is de Klein. So I'm curious to see the true level of the team’s middle class.
Far from the best. It was obvious, though this race confirms there’s an interesting GC prospect in the young French rider Mathys Rondel.
Team TotalEnergies: Who wants a contract? (II)
TotalEnergies' case is very different from Arkéa's, although the rumours about Total switching its sponsorship to INEOS are getting louder. What would that mean for Bernaudeau's structure?
Jeannière and Jegat have had a very good race. They need more from Turgis. We’ll see what the team’s future holds, though they’ll head to the Tour dreaming of repeating their stage win from 2024.
Now it's your turn! 👉
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