That spring that changed all my springs
Preview of the Opening Weekend: Omloop is more open than in recent editions, with a wide range of favourites and the uncertainty of Van Aert. Kuurne looks set for a sprint.
Spring 2020 changed all our lives. Back then, I was on the verge of taking a crucial step in my life, as I was about to move to Iowa, USA, to work as a teacher. For reasons I hardly need to explain, everything suddenly changed, and instead of heading to the United States, I found myself staying in my hometown.
Somehow, I ended up as a president of a football club and started a podcast to talk about sport, partly inspired by the ridiculous amount of time that had filled so many lockdown hours watching replays of cycling races from almost an entire decade.
Those races brought back into my life, for good this time, that wonderful thing called the Classics.
Don’t get me wrong, it wasn’t the first time I had watched one-day races. But ever since I can remember, my experience of cycling had aligned with the culture of any Spanish kid who grew up in the '90s: the Tour, La Vuelta, the Worlds, a few stage races in Spain, and, if I was lucky, Liège and Flèche.
During those months that turned our lives upside down, I (re)discovered a different side of cycling, one without teams riding defensively in mountain trains and without riders carefully guarding their fifth place in the GC, afraid to waste watts and energy.
There’s no need to explain at this point that in modern cycling, the season no longer begins with the Opening Weekend, just as there are no longer warm-up races with bibs pinned on, and just as Pogacar and Vingegaard already have victories to their names after just a week of competition.
Even so, Omloop still holds something special for me, and I believe for almost everyone. It’s the first WorldTour race in Europe, but more than that, it marks the start of one of the best stretches of the season.
I don’t want to glorify the Belgian spring even more than it already is, but it’s clear that the energy and excitement of these races now reach far beyond the most dedicated fans. Omloop Het Nieuwsblad is the first real turning point of the season. And that makes me very happy.
How do you win in Omloop?
This Saturday Omloop returns, and it’s worth remembering 2 key things for context: Visma has won the last 3 editions with 3 different riders, and the last time they didn’t, in 2021, Ballerini won in a bunch sprint of around 40 riders. This last detail is interesting and applies to almost all major Classics (even Kuurne, which is geared towards sprinters but has ended in small groups in the last two editions): In modern cycling, it’s now very common for a big Classic to be won solo or, at most, in a two-man sprint.
Why? A deeper analysis is needed, but I’d say it’s a mix of canibalism, fragmented race scenarios with very few teams holding numerical superiority, the rise of a stellar generation, the fierce battle for points and a startlist with hardly any filler teams, as the second-division squads have clearly stepped up. Nobody trusts anyone when, as Chente García would say, the breakaway of the breakaway forms.
The stats speak for themselves when looking at solo or two-rider victories in major Classics in the post-pandemic era. Of course, race routes also play a role, as some are naturally more suited to this outcome due to their difficulty or specific characteristics:
- Sanremo: 3 of the last 4 editions
- Ronde van Vlaanderen: 3 of the last 4 editions
- Paris-Roubaix: 3 of the last 4 editions
- Gent-Wevelgem: 2 of the last 4 editions
- Dwars door Vlaanderen: Last 4 editions
- E3: 3 of the last 4 editions
If we look at hilly Classics, the results are similar.
Omloop het Nieuwsblad
With Girmay out due to his paternity, the list of pure sprinters is reduced to Philipsen, Meeus, Magnier, and De Lie, assuming we even include the latter two in that category. This, along with what we discussed earlier, makes a bunch sprint unlikely in my opinion.
The breakaway should have some strength, as teams like Jayco, Uno-X, and Arkéa will need to go on the attack and stay active when the race explodes. From there, the key point where the race should really kick off (if it hasn’t already) is Eikenberg. 55 km from the finish, this climb is the first in a series of four and the lead-in to the tough Molenberg. Positioning will be crucial here, as will the ability of the top teams, especially UAE and Visma, to have a rider in any key move.
With 31 km to go, the Berendries climb will be another important moment. We’ll likely see attacks here, alongside a chasing effort from whatever group is in the front. One of the biggest questions for me is Red Bull, they’ve improved their Classics squad significantly, but without Pithie in the Opening Weekend, will they try to play multiple tactical cards, or will they put everything on Jordi Meeus in a sprint.
From there, we reach Omloop’s two great hot spots:
First, the Kapelmuur, one of the cathedrals of our sport.
While it’s often more about spectacle than actual impact, it remains an icon, with a brutally steep final section. It’s crested 16 km from the finish, just before tackling the Bosberg, the day’s last climb—the perfect launchpad for those looking to get ahead of the fireworks. The summit comes at 11 km to go.
Recent history tells us that cooperation in lead groups is tricky, especially when they’re large or stacked with big names. This is where having multiple riders in the chasing pack could be key, UAE might be happy with a move including Narváez, just as Visma would with Van Aert.
Favourites and riders to watch
The biggest name of all is Van Aert, third in 2024.
He doesn’t seem to be in top form based on what we saw in Jaén and Algarve, and his recent experiences in Flanders have been inconsistent and frustrating. I don’t see many scenarios where he attacks early or makes it into the lead group before the Bosberg, like he did in his 2022 victory.
He has Benoot, a reliable rider but not a serious threat for the win, the ever-aggressive Campenaerts, who is rejoining the team and seems likely to go on the offensive, and Matteo Jorgenson, making his debut in 2025, whom I see as being at least on Van Aert’s level in terms of favourites.
UAE bring the strongest team to the race.
Out of their 7 riders, 6 are serious threats in any move that forms in the final 50km. The exception is Rune Herregodts, although I’m curious to see how he performs in this type of race, which has never really been his specialty.
The team features Politt (last year’s runner-up), Bjerg, Vermeersch, Morgado (!), Wellens, and Narváez, who, based on his performances in Australia, his past results on the cobbles (especially in races of around 200km), the strong team supporting him and his finishing speed, is just as much of a favourite as anyone else. Yes, as much as Van Aert.
If you’re looking for a star rating system to identify the favourites, I’m afraid I’ll have to disappoint you.
So what?
The startlist is spectacular, the best in years.
With Van der Poel, Pedersen, and Pogacar absent, the race is wide open. Beyond the two big teams, there are top-tier riders with far less tactical support, such as Philipsen (though Groves is also here...), De Lie (who has a great shot at claiming his first major Flemish victory in a race that suits him perfectly), and Tom Pidcock, who is supposed to skip RVV and Roubaix this year but arrives in top form.
Beyond them, the list of contenders is almost endless: Tratnik (the defending champion), Lazkano (will he level up on the cobbles like Jorgenson after leaving Movistar?), Magnier (one to watch), Küng, Vacek, Skujins, Stuyven, Mohorič (time to put his explosive efforts training to the test), the Van Dijke brothers, Abrahamsen, Teuns, Bettiol, Asgreen, Hagenes, Turner, Tarling... If I keep going, I’ll end up listing the entire startlist.
Two names I wouldn’t call favourites but who intrigue me are Joseph Blackmore and Roger Adrià. Though very different in roles and strengths, I’m curious to see how they handle a race where positioning is everything. A similar case is Aurélien Paret-Peintre, who won’t be in Omloop but will make his cobbled debut in a few weeks. It’s a good time to be a puncheur.
Intermarché and Movistar don’t have the firepower to go with the best or the speed to win a sprint, so I’m interested to see how they navigate a chaotic race with attacks flying.
My pick to win? Jony Narváez. But don’t take my predictions too seriously 😆
Kuurne - Brussel - Kuurne
Tactics, parcours, weather, and, over all that the startlist determine races. This time, the teams have restored Kuurne to its sprinter-classic roots, bringing Milan, Philipsen, Merlier, and Kooij, the four best sprinters in the world right now.
The outcome seems clear.
Beyond them, we also have Meeus, Kristoff, Démare, Aniołkowski, Bittner, Arne Marit, and Moschetti, though aside from Meeus, it’s hard to see them fighting for anything beyond a top-10 spot.
Can anyone stop a sprint?
The climbs come too far from the finish, around 35 km to go, making a long-range attack like last year’s break by Van Aert, Wellens, and Lazkano unlikely. Still, Visma and UAE have the most tactical options if they want to shake things up.
Even with Kooij as a strong option, Van Aert and Jorgenson will likely play a reactive role, marking UAE’s moves. The Emirati squad swaps Rui Oliveira for Morgado, while Vermeersch, Politt, and Bjerg could be the key engines to disrupt the race early on. However, Wellens remains the biggest threat.
Without allies, any breakaway will be mission impossible, but they could find support from Bahrain and Lotto, both lacking a top-tier sprinter.
It’s almost impossible to pick a clear favorite, but if I have to name one, I would say Jonathan Milan.
That spring of 2020 changed my life, as it did for many. But it also gave me an eternal spring of cobbles, walls, attacks, counterattacks, chases and Belgian beers.
Every Opening Weekend, I think of Iowa, of what could have been and never was.
But honestly? I’ll take the Kapelmuur.
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