Tadej vs Tadej

The unofficial Gravel World Championship arrives with only one favourite and the question of how and when Pogačar will put on his show.

Cycling without emotion is just a tourist documentary with a colorful peloton in the background.

For the first time, I approach a major classic with the feeling that not even a puncture, a bad strategy, or a slip will change the expected outcome: seeing Tadej Pogačar win his third Strade Bianche.

The reasons are obvious. The race, already tough until its 2023 edition, was extended last year by 30 extra kilometers in response to demands for RCS to monumentalise Strade Bianche.

Additionally, nearly 600 more meters of elevation gain were added, along with a final loop that repeats the climbs of Colle Pinzuto and Le Tolfe. The perfect setup to turn it into a climbers' and puncheurs' classic. The ideal race for Pogačar.

Tadej’s attack in the 2024 edition | @ Strade Bianche

Moreover, despite the high overall level of the race, which has become a favourite for many riders over the years, I find myself thinking more about the absences than the riders present.

Visma arrives without Jorgenson, Van Aert, and Vingegaard, who has mapped out his road to the Tour, leaving these secondary battles behind. Roglic is playing it safe, minimising risks and efforts at this stage of his career. Evenepoel is still recovering, and Van der Poel is fully focused on Sanremo, RVV, and Roubaix, the 3 races that define his season.

So there is only one contender, only one favourite and only a crash could prevent the sight of Pogačar celebrating in the stunning Piazza del Campo.

Literature and history, aren’t they the same thing?

When Merckx won his 19 Monuments (19! Yes, 19), he didn't know they were such a thing.

The term appeared later in sports literature, in the mid 80s, and it came about by chance. Now, it's part of cycling's vocabulary, and even the UCI uses the term in its race categorization.

A few years ago I wrote a report about the debate over the sixth Monument and the status Strade Bianche had in today's cycling scene. In it, the first winner of the Eroica, Alexander Kolobnev, told me that it would end up "being a Monument in 4 or 5 years, not in 40 or 50".

That time has already passed, and although the debate is still there, that label hasn't arrived yet… Although Pogačar's presence makes me think that maybe he does plan long-term and wants to rack up as many victories as possible here in case, one day, Strade Bianche is equated with Liège or Lombardia in history.

This Saturday, he has the chance to equal Fabian Cancellara as the race's most successful rider, with 3 wins.

The Slovenian battles against his rivals, but he races against himself, and his challenge isn't with Merckx and Hinault, but with cycling's own History.

Perhaps on April 13th, in Roubaix, he'll take another bite out of his uncontrollable ambition. Only risk gives meaning to the challenge, and in this poker game, Pogačar lives in a constant all-in.

The fact that there is only one outcome aligned with logic takes away the excitement, but as happened last spring with Van der Poel, it also allows us to witness the real-time writing of an unprecedented chapter in cycling history.

In Spanish we say “PA-TA-TA” | @ Zac Williams/SWpix

The race

This year, Strade Bianche adds a stretch of sterrato, Serravalle, passing through a small medieval Tuscan village. It has a significant impact due to the dangers it brings: although it only has a small climb at the beginning of this 7th section, it is nearly 10 kilometers long, follows two consecutive sterrato sections, and is the precursor to San Martino in Grania, which has a similar length.

In total, there will be about 40 kilometers of sterrato and less than 10 kilometers of road in the central part of the race, right before the decisive Sante Marie.

As in other races, such as Roubaix, the caravan of cars has a much harder time being close to the front of the race to solve mechanical issues or change bikes, so what happens here will be crucial.

Perhaps it won't decide the podium, but it is very likely that some riders will lose their race chances.

Alberto Bettiol, Italian champion and XDS Astana rider, also has a clear view: "I hope Tadej attacks early this Saturday," he states.

"If you think about it, it's safer for him, he can avoid accidents and control the pace. For the others, the race will be crazy from behind in the fight for second place."

In that fight for the podium, we’ll definitely witness an exciting battle, just like in 2024. Mikel Landa makes his debut in both 2025 and this race, and inevitably, curiosity takes over me. I believe a long-distance rider like him can (and should) do well in Strade.

Pidcock, winner of the last "short" edition in 2023, will be there, as will Hirschi, in his first race against Pogačar since the famous 2020 Liège. Yes, the Alaphilippe one.

Carapaz, Bilbao, Van Eetvelt, Kwiato, Grégoire, Valter, Skujiņš and Tratnik are other legitimate contenders for the podium. If Wellens or Del Toro weren’t racing with the same jersey as Pogačar they could also be in the mix. Or perhaps, even like this, they still might.

This is Cannibal cycling, my friends. A whole peloton acknowledging, with the greatest dignity possible, that the only real aspiration, on controllable race scenarios, is aiming for the podium.

Dominance over time can only be forged with authoritarianism. Also in cycling.

Pogačar won’t last forever, but he insists on his desire to be eternal.