The 5 riders with everything to prove in Ronde van Vlaanderen
Pogačar and Van der Poel are the only favourites for RVV, with Pedersen's potential still in question | I analyse the case of 5 riders with everything to prove after a disappointing spring.
The great festival of Flemish cycling is here, along with the second Monument of the year.
The Tour of Flanders stands before us with the same certainty that has prevailed since the circuit changed: the Oude Kwaremont-Paterberg double loop acts as a race blocker, often leading to an absolut display of brute strength from the favourites.
Tactical options are limited, and with just a couple of days to go, only two scenarios come to my mind for deciding the winner: Pogačar attacks and goes solo, or Pogačar attacks, but Van der Poel resists, just as he did in Sanremo.
Of course, many other things can happen, as riders like Mads Pedersen are arriving in the best form of their career, Visma demonstrated in DDV that they have the collective strength to put the race in jeopardy and riders and teams like Ganna or Red Bull could try to anticipate.
Or even, despite attacking and going solo, the hypothetical advantage gained by Pogačar might not be enough to make the final kilometres alone and avoid the sprint.
And the factor of crashes, which hopefully won't come into play, but is always there as a potential destabiliser in any race, especially one with cobbles.
Based on what I believe is ‘normal’ and most likely, I approach RVV thinking about who could try to emulate Luca Mozzato (2nd in 2024) and save a disappointing spring. Starting with Van Aert, of course. With cases like Arnaud de Lie, who deserve a chapter of their own, for me, these are the other 5 riders, beyond the two Belgians, who could only be saved from a spring of underwhelming classics by putting in a great ride on Sunday (or in Roubaix):
Matej Mohorič
The leader of Bahrain meticulously prepared for the classics during his winter, focusing on improving his explosive efforts to get closer to Van der Poel or Pogačar. Not only has he failed to get closer, but his classics campaign has been a brutal disappointment.
He didn’t finish Kuurne, Gent-Wevelgem, or E3. He was unable to start Strade Bianche, finished 152nd in Omloop, 100th in Sanremo, and 49th in DDV, his best result of the spring.
Not only far from the best, but light years away from his usual level. With his last year on contract, the drop-off is inexplicable and only a strong performance here or in Roubaix could salvage his spring.
Dylan van Baarle
With the exception of Omloop 2023, his time at Visma has been a constant drama of crashes and injuries, with almost a blank 2024.
When he was signed as the reigning Paris-Roubaix winner, he seemed like the perfect piece to support Van Aert in his bid for the cobbled Monuments. However, the reality is that he hasn't come close to replicating the form of the Van Baarle who glided over the cobbles in 2021 and 2022.
This year started with a new collarbone fracture at the Tour Down Under, and despite some signs of improvement, he couldn't match the level of Affini, Benoot, Jorgenson or Van Aert in DDV, on a day when his team dominated the race… until the final disaster.
He has two more opportunities to prove he can be a useful piece in Visma's tactical setup, but at 32 years old and in the final year of his contract, he has a lot riding on Sunday.
Oier Lazkano
Lazkano personifies what could be exchanged for ‘Red Bull - Bora - hansgrohe’ almost entirely. Aside from a few performances by Roger Adrià and glimpses from Tim van Dijke, Red Bull has been absent from the big battles and neither the signings nor Jordi Meeus have lived up to expectations.
Let's not forget that the German team strengthened with Tratnik, the van Dijke brothers, Laurence Pithie, Oier Lazkano, and Gianni Moscon, aiming to improve the team's weakest area, but their results speak for themselves.
Lazkano is the epitome of this failure. After recovering from an illness, he has failed to showcase his extraordinary power in any classic, despite impressing with his performances at DDV in 2023 (2nd) and Kuurne 2024 (3rd) during his time with Movistar.
He had plenty of room for improvement, starting with a theoretically stronger block around him, and followed by certain technical aspects and decision-making.
However, his results are telling: 112th in Brugge de Panne, 128th in Omloop, and DNF in Kuurne and E3. Lazkano in a breakaway is a potential threat to any favourite… in his 2024 version. We’ll see if he’s still in time to make an impact.
Jhonatan Narváez
Narváez’s acceleration on the Cipressa was crucial for, in the absence of Isaac del Toro, setting up Pogačar’s attack and breaking the ascent record.
However, the reality is that Narváez's signing made a lot of sense for the cobbled classics. UAE already had riders like Wellens, Politt, Morgado and Bjerg in their ranks and needed one more piece to help Pogačar, or to lead the team in his absence and fight for victories.
He has had leadership and freedom in Omloop, Kuurne and Dwars door Vlaanderen… but his best result has been 43rd.
Narváez is fast, explosive and had proven at INEOS that he could compete near the best in the cobbled classics around 200 km, so it seemed reasonable to expect an even higher level. But no. UAE is a team where, as Almeida and Ayuso well know, every leadership opportunity must be seized, because they are few and internal competition can often be even fiercer than external competition.
It's ironic that the only Flemish classic they have won was with Sebastián Molano. Unless things change dramatically, Florian Vermeersch seems like a more reliable ally for Pogačar in RVV and especially in Paris-Roubaix.
Biniam Girmay
Girmay’s results aren’t as poor as those of the previous riders and he missed the Opening Weekend due to his paternity. So far, he has secured 7th in Gent-Wevelgem, 17th in Dwars door Vlaanderen and 22nd in E3.
The issue, however, is that his last professional win dates back to July 11th 2024, at the Tour de France. Since then, the team has only secured one victory, with Taco van der Hoorn in October 2024 at Elfstedenrace. Intermarché is the only WT team yet to win in 2025, and it’s dangerously close to relegation, while Astana and Uno-X are improving exponentially.
Girmay, a former winner of Gent-Wevelgem, had a crucial season ahead to determine if he belongs to the elite of classics riders. This is where riders like Pippo Ganna have firmly established themselves.
The reality is that, despite not having bad results, we haven't seen him near victory even for a single day. He will make his debut at Roubaix next week, but he carries the pressure of needing to perform to keep the team afloat.
If he’s not at his best, it will be very difficult. And repeating his three Tour victories plus the green jersey against Philipsen, Milan and Merlier now seems like a utopia.
There are other riders who need to prove themselves in the two major races remaining, such as Dylan Teuns, Joshua Tarling, Yves Lampaert or Laurence Pithie, although the bigger the race, the tougher the competition and more difficult it gets.
These riders, along with the main favourites, are the ones I’m eager to follow on Sunday because of what’s at stake for them and their teams in these final 10 days of spring cobbled races.
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To be fair to DvB at RVV, he let the wheel go on purpose to force the split and FDJ to chase.
Mohorič and Lazkano have been sick several times, of course they couldn’t deliver results. Similar goes to the riders who had injuries (Van Baarle..).